There’s no mistaking the power of artificial intelligence. I’ve seen it at work and count me among the impressed. That said, as is our wont, I’m afraid we might have gotten a bit ahead of ourselves, whether we are Chicken Little, or wearing rose hued spectacles. That is, it’s not as bad as some people fear, nor as good as some people promise.
First, to the fearful. The fear hype is most potent when we imagine a world in which the machines attain consciousness, and determine we are no longer needed. This is the termination point for the Terminator generation. But it’s not going to happen. No way. No how. AI does not, will not and can not will to do anything. It is, of necessity, impersonal, devoid of spirit. No one would ever confuse me with a tech expert. But I know a thing or two about people. AI might fool me into thinking I’m communicating with a human. But that wouldn’t make AI human.
The second fear is that AI is going to put us all out of work. It won’t. It can’t. Our desires are infinite. AI might crowd out this profession or that. Technology can do that. Not many people enjoyed a long career making carriages after Henry Ford gave us the Model T. Increased efficiency, however, doesn’t mean we can’t work. It means we’ll work where we’re most needed. We’ll be more productive, not less so.
Ironically, the overblown promises intersect with this second fear. “Experts” tell us we’ll all soon be reaping a time dividend brought to us by AI. We’ll improve our efficiency so powerfully that we’ll move to the four hour work week. Yeah, no. AI may well be the most potent efficiency increasing tool the world have ever known. It isn’t, however, the first and won’t be the last. Lesson two of economics– we live in a world of scarcity. (Lesson one- God owns it all.)
Increased efficiency, whatever its source, leaves us with choices. It can increase our tangible wealth, or it can increase our intangible wealth. Consider the lawnmower. A lawnmower, whether the latest zero turn or an old school push mower, makes cutting grass wildly less labor intensive than, say, a pair of scissors. Before the lawnmower, did we spend all our waking ours in the lawn with scissors? Or did we have maybe not such a nice lawn? The time saving some poured into more time on the hammock with a glass of lemonade, while others poured into improving their landscaping to Versailles levels. Most of us fall somewhere in between.
Which is always the case with labor saving technologies. They’re good things. They will not, however, eliminate all thorns and thistles and take us back to the Garden. The old saw that any given technology is neither good nor evil has some merit. Good and evil, like consciousness and intention, are human realities, not mechanical. That said, every blessing, including technology, comes with subtle moral challenges that the wise watch out for. Do not panic. And do not hold your breath waiting for a just-around-the-corner golden age. You’ll find work. And work will find you.